Dr. Boyce Watkins Shares Thought on Consumer Confidence

Dr. Boyce Watkins
www.Boycewatkins.com

If you wish to see a video explaining consumer confidence, which is one of the driving issues behind the recent moves in the stock market, please click here.

This has been an interesting week, with auto execs showing up on private jets to request a bailout from the government and the Dow moving to below 8,000 points for the first time in 5 years. I still hold to the fact that this is a great time to get into the stock market if one has never done so before, especially if you are under the age of 50. By the way - please visit our sponsor, GreatBlackSpeakers.com if you are interested in hiring a top notch African American speaker or seeking to become one.

Take care!
Boyce Watkins
http://www.blogger.com/www.boycewatkins.com
Click here to join our money advice list.

=====================================================================================
If you listen carefully to the words of Treasury Secretary Henry “Hank” Paulson and Ben “Big Ben” Bernanke (chairman of the Federal Reserve) you might notice a trend in their language. The word “confidence” is used a lot when they speak. Many of their monetary proposals are not necessarily valuable for their financial power, but also for their psychological power.

Some of you may wonder what confidence has to do with anything. After all, if you’re broke, confidence doesn’t exactly put money in your pocket. If you’re 100 pounds overweight, confidence won’t help you win the Olympic 100 meter dash. When you are flying on a crashing plane, confidence doesn’t keep the plane from slamming into the ground. But confidence is important to an economy, and one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. In fact, over confidence has driven US economic growth for the past 10 years. Here are some reasons that confidence matters in the minds of Hank and Big Ben:

1) Confident consumers spend money

If you think you might lose your job next year, are you going to max out your credit cards? I certainly hope not. If you are worried about being able to make ends meet, are you going to buy that big screen TV? Not unless you want your wife to leave you. So, even if it doesn’t hold any truth, the mere forecast of a weak economy is enough to make many Americans hold off on consumer spending, one of the great driving forces of the American financial system.

2) Confident companies invest money and hire workers

Investments involve risk. Your hunch may work out, and it may not. If you don’t believe the economy is getting better, you are not going to consider taking that risk. No one plans to go to the beach if the weather man says that it’s going to rain. When economic rain is in the forecast, companies pull out their umbrellas and hold off on new projects. This reduces the number of jobs in the economy, because nearly every job created in America is the result of someone making an investment.

3) Confident Americans do not take their money out of banks

In case you didn’t know, your bank does not have your money. Your money is part of a large base of financial capital that is loaned out to individuals and consumers seeking to get a good return on their investment. So, without investing, your bank would have no interest in paying you any interest at all. So if, say, 30% of all customers of the same bank decide to get their money out at the same time, the bank would have serious financial problems. It is a lack of confidence that could cause customers to “run” on their bank and take out their money.

4) Confident investors keep their money in the stock market

The stock market is a place where fortunes are made and lost. Some part of that fortune is psychological, given that no asset can have a value which exceeds that which someone is willing to pay for it. When investors lose confidence, they take their money out of the stock market, and reductions in demand for stocks lead to massive paper losses in the market. Additionally, most Americans are “momentum traders”, meaning that when the market goes up, they tend to buy more, and when it goes down, they tend to sell. History shows that it is actually the opposite approach that tends to work best.

5) Confident banks make loans

Banks have to keep a certain portion of their funds on hand at all times to meet federal requirements. If they are fearful that their customers might come and demand their cash, they hold onto their capital to ensure that it is available. If they are afraid that their borrowing customers will not be able to repay loans due to a weak economy, they also hold back on issuing new loans. The truth is that when economic forecasts are grim, conservative bankers become even more fearful than the rest of us.

The bottom line of this article is that confidence matters. So, the next time you hear Ben Bernanke give a speech, you can be confident that he is going to use language that makes you feel more secure. Whether you choose to believe those words is up to you.

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University. He does regular commentary in national media, including CNN, BET, ESPN and CBS. For more information, please visit http://www.blogger.com/www.boycewatkins.com. To join our money list, please click here.

Dr. Boyce's Tips On How To Become A Confident Consumer

If We Really Should Really Trust The Government - Boyce Watkins

Keeping Your Confidence While In The Financial Crisis

by Dr. Boyce Watkins
http://www.boycewatkins.com/

If you listen carefully to the words of Treasury Secretary Henry “Hank” Paulson and Ben “Big Ben” Bernanke (chairman of the Federal Reserve) you might notice a trend in their language. The word “confidence” is used a lot when they speak. Many of their monetary proposals are not necessarily valuable for their financial power, but also for their psychological power.

Some of you may wonder what confidence has to do with anything. After all, if you’re broke, confidence doesn’t exactly put money in your pocket. If you’re 100 pounds overweight, confidence won’t help you win the Olympic 100 meter dash. When you are flying on a crashing plane, confidence doesn’t keep the plane from slamming into the ground. But confidence is important to an economy, and one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. In fact, over confidence has driven US economic growth for the past 10 years. Here are some reasons that confidence matters in the minds of Hank and Big Ben:

1) Confident consumers spend money
If you think you might lose your job next year, are you going to max out your credit cards? I certainly hope not. If you are worried about being able to make ends meet, are you going to buy that big screen TV? Not unless you want your wife to leave you. So, even if it doesn’t hold any truth, the mere forecast of a weak economy is enough to make many Americans hold off on consumer spending, one of the great driving forces of the American financial system.

2) Confident companies invest money and hire workers
Investments involve risk. Your hunch may work out, and it may not. If you don’t believe the economy is getting better, you are not going to consider taking that risk. No one plans to go to the beach if the weather man says that it’s going to rain. When economic rain is in the forecast, companies pull out their umbrellas and hold off on new projects. This reduces the number of jobs in the economy, because nearly every job created in America is the result of someone making an investment.

3) Confident Americans do not take their money out of banks
In case you didn’t know, your bank does not have your money. Your money is part of a large base of financial capital that is loaned out to individuals and consumers seeking to get a good return on their investment. So, without investing, your bank would have no interest in paying you any interest at all. So if, say, 30% of all customers of the same bank decide to get their money out at the same time, the bank would have serious financial problems. It is a lack of confidence that could cause customers to “run” on their bank and take out their money.

4) Confident investors keep their money in the stock market
The stock market is a place where fortunes are made and lost. Some part of that fortune is psychological, given that no asset can have a value which exceeds that which someone is willing to pay for it. When investors lose confidence, they take their money out of the stock market, and reductions in demand for stocks lead to massive paper losses in the market. Additionally, most Americans are “momentum traders”, meaning that when the market goes up, they tend to buy more, and when it goes down, they tend to sell. History shows that it is actually the opposite approach that tends to work best.

5) Confident banks make loans
Banks have to keep a certain portion of their funds on hand at all times to meet federal requirements. If they are fearful that their customers might come and demand their cash, they hold onto their capital to ensure that it is available. If they are afraid that their borrowing customers will not be able to repay loans due to a weak economy, they also hold back on issuing new loans. The truth is that when economic forecasts are grim, conservative bankers become even more fearful than the rest of us.

The bottom line of this article is that confidence matters. So, the next time you hear Ben Bernanke give a speech, you can be confident that he is going to use language that makes you feel more secure. Whether you choose to believe those words is up to you.

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of “Financial Lovemaking 101: Merging Assets with Your Partner in Ways that Feel Good”. For more information, please visit http://boycewatikns.com/

Dr. Boyce Tips For Making It Through Financial Crisis

Marc Lamont Hill, Bill O'Reilly Discuss Economic Crisis

Love, Money and Family: Where We Always Get it Wrong

By Dr. Boyce Watkins
www.FinancialLovemaking.net

People fall in love every day. Some fall in love forever, and some just love the idea of falling in love. We are all familiar with the bliss and agony of love, and our mating, dating and procreating choices define much of the quality of our earthly existence.

But many of us love in all the wrong ways and make short-term choices with serious lifelong consequences. For long-term relationships, reality eventually sets in, and we learn that LOVING together means LIVING together. The thrill you once got from a long, seductive kiss is replaced by the excitement of a good home appraisal or bank account increase. Financial insecurity and emotional insecurity become one and the same, as we find there is a strong correlation between financial deception and emotional betrayal. A big part of living is MONEY. According to a study by the Council of Relationships, money is the number one reason for divorce. This alarming reality is a strong reminder that not discussing the financial and practical dimensions of your relationship can cause you a lifetime of misery.

Some consider it taboo to discuss love and money in the same sentence. I consider it ESSENTIAL. While we might mull all day over a potential mate’s emotional compatibility, sexual compatibility, professional compatibility and spiritual compatibility, most of us don’t spend one second thinking about financial compatibility. Many couples step into serious relationships and marriage without knowing their partner’s income levels, debt levels, credit score, retirement savings, or any of the other significant pieces of information that are going to have a dramatic effect on their love life. Merging your life with a financially irresponsible person is like putting your children into a car with a drunk driver. Once you are in the car, your fates are inextricably linked.

Money plays a huge role in our quality of life, emotional well-being, ability to raise our children properly or ability to spend time together. Money can either be a tool to enhance your love or a weapon to destroy it. Many people have seen their love and relationships ruined by financial problems, financial deception or financial exploitation. How we manage, confront and conceptualize the power of money plays a huge role in how our relationships evolve. That is what Financial Lovemaking is all about.

You think money doesn’t matter in a relationship? Well, here is just a small list of ways that someone could ruin your life financially:

• A partner with horrible credit could keep you from ever getting loan.
• A partner with terrible spending habits can ruin a family’s financial security.
• A partner with a substance abuse or other costly addiction could deplete a family’s assets.
• A partner with unhealthy connections to deadbeat relatives, who always need money, may drain your assets.
• A partner that with an income that is too low due to a lack of education or poor professional choices could ruin you financially.
• A partner may steal money from you or borrow it without your permission and use it for something frivolous (i.e. a bad business investment, gambling, etc.)
• A partner who makes bad financial choices may get you into trouble with the IRS.
• A partner who decides to separate from you may end up dragging you and your money through a long and costly legal battle.

I just gave you the short list of ways that money directly impacts your love life. I am sure you can think of experiences you’ve had or those of your friends. In fact, I encourage you to visit our Financial Lovemaking blog to share your personal story on how love and money have impacted your life.

I am not here there to say there’s nothing going on but the rent. However, I can say that nothing else goes on if the rent is not being paid. So, good Financial Lovemaking is the necessary step to good love. Don’t forget that.

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of “Financial Lovemaking 101: Merging Assets with Your Partner in Ways that Feel Good.” He does regular commentary in national media, including CNN, NBC, CBS, MSNBC and BET. For more information, please visit www.FinancialLovemaking.net.

Retirement 101: The early bird gets the nest egg

I spent last summer with the Center for European Economic Research. During this time, I had a revelation: America is headed for a horrific retirement crisis, unlike anything we’ve ever seen. The recipe for disaster is quite simple: Americans are not saving, the cost of health care is rising, pension plans are disappearing, Social Security is nearly dead, and people are living longer than ever before. A longer life only prolongs the misery of that life if you have not saved and prepared for your future.

I talk to college students all the time about saving for retirement, and I am sure that about 1/3 of them listen. I didn’t listen when I was in college, but I wish I had. If I had done so, I would know about the Financial Magic that takes place when you save and invest in the stock market over a long period of time. I’m not talking Harry Potter, but the Pot of Gold at the end can make your life as rich as a Hollywood block buster.

Let’s do the math: Assume that Angela starts saving for retirement at 45, Danny starts at 35, and Cindy starts at 25. All of them save till they are 65, each investing in the stock market, earning an average return of 10% per year. Angela earns the most on her job ($55,000) since she is the oldest, with Danny coming in second ($45,000) and Cindy coming in third ($35,000). But when Cindy is 35 and 45, she will earn the same amount as her older counterparts. Based on this assumption, all of them earn the same amount over their lifetimes. I won’t adjust for inflation, since this has been enough to absorb already (isn’t math annoying sometimes?).

Assume Angela, Danny and Cindy each save a measly 10% of their pay before taxes and have that money put into a retirement account that invests in a diversified portfolio in the stock market. By diversified, I mean that they don’t buy just one stock, they have their money spread out over a lot of stocks and all their eggs are not in one basket.

Let’s figure out the size of their nest eggs, shall we? Drum roll please: Angela, who got off to a late start, will have $348,041.50 in her retirement account, minus taxes paid when she withdraws the funds. Not good, not bad. It’s better than nothing.

Danny is better off. By saving 10% of his income when he earns $45,000 and then continuing to save when his pay rises to the level of Angela’s, Danny ends up with $864,826, more than twice as much as Angela. Good for Danny, he can afford to maintain his golf and cheeseburger habit.

Cindy is the smart one. Fresh out of college, she doesn’t spend all of her money at the club. Instead, she spends some of it planning for her financial future. Starting at 25 instead of waiting, how much doe Cindy have at retirement? A cool $1,907,340.54. You go girl. Instead of saving just 10% of her income, she may save 20%, which would effectively double this amount to $3.8 million dollars. Now, that’s Financial Magic at its best. Harry Potter has nothing on Cindy.

What’s my point? The point is obviously not for you to obsess over the tiny variations in numbers. My point is that by planning ahead, you can get ahead. If you are planning behind, then you’ll always stay there. Start saving early if you can, and if you can’t start early, then get started TODAY!

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of “Financial Lovemaking 101: Merging assets with your partner in ways that feel good”. He provides regular commentary in national media, including CNN, FOX, BET and CBS.