Keeping Your Confidence While In The Financial Crisis

by Dr. Boyce Watkins
http://www.boycewatkins.com/

If you listen carefully to the words of Treasury Secretary Henry “Hank” Paulson and Ben “Big Ben” Bernanke (chairman of the Federal Reserve) you might notice a trend in their language. The word “confidence” is used a lot when they speak. Many of their monetary proposals are not necessarily valuable for their financial power, but also for their psychological power.

Some of you may wonder what confidence has to do with anything. After all, if you’re broke, confidence doesn’t exactly put money in your pocket. If you’re 100 pounds overweight, confidence won’t help you win the Olympic 100 meter dash. When you are flying on a crashing plane, confidence doesn’t keep the plane from slamming into the ground. But confidence is important to an economy, and one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. In fact, over confidence has driven US economic growth for the past 10 years. Here are some reasons that confidence matters in the minds of Hank and Big Ben:

1) Confident consumers spend money
If you think you might lose your job next year, are you going to max out your credit cards? I certainly hope not. If you are worried about being able to make ends meet, are you going to buy that big screen TV? Not unless you want your wife to leave you. So, even if it doesn’t hold any truth, the mere forecast of a weak economy is enough to make many Americans hold off on consumer spending, one of the great driving forces of the American financial system.

2) Confident companies invest money and hire workers
Investments involve risk. Your hunch may work out, and it may not. If you don’t believe the economy is getting better, you are not going to consider taking that risk. No one plans to go to the beach if the weather man says that it’s going to rain. When economic rain is in the forecast, companies pull out their umbrellas and hold off on new projects. This reduces the number of jobs in the economy, because nearly every job created in America is the result of someone making an investment.

3) Confident Americans do not take their money out of banks
In case you didn’t know, your bank does not have your money. Your money is part of a large base of financial capital that is loaned out to individuals and consumers seeking to get a good return on their investment. So, without investing, your bank would have no interest in paying you any interest at all. So if, say, 30% of all customers of the same bank decide to get their money out at the same time, the bank would have serious financial problems. It is a lack of confidence that could cause customers to “run” on their bank and take out their money.

4) Confident investors keep their money in the stock market
The stock market is a place where fortunes are made and lost. Some part of that fortune is psychological, given that no asset can have a value which exceeds that which someone is willing to pay for it. When investors lose confidence, they take their money out of the stock market, and reductions in demand for stocks lead to massive paper losses in the market. Additionally, most Americans are “momentum traders”, meaning that when the market goes up, they tend to buy more, and when it goes down, they tend to sell. History shows that it is actually the opposite approach that tends to work best.

5) Confident banks make loans
Banks have to keep a certain portion of their funds on hand at all times to meet federal requirements. If they are fearful that their customers might come and demand their cash, they hold onto their capital to ensure that it is available. If they are afraid that their borrowing customers will not be able to repay loans due to a weak economy, they also hold back on issuing new loans. The truth is that when economic forecasts are grim, conservative bankers become even more fearful than the rest of us.

The bottom line of this article is that confidence matters. So, the next time you hear Ben Bernanke give a speech, you can be confident that he is going to use language that makes you feel more secure. Whether you choose to believe those words is up to you.

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of “Financial Lovemaking 101: Merging Assets with Your Partner in Ways that Feel Good”. For more information, please visit http://boycewatikns.com/

Retirement 101: The early bird gets the nest egg

I spent last summer with the Center for European Economic Research. During this time, I had a revelation: America is headed for a horrific retirement crisis, unlike anything we’ve ever seen. The recipe for disaster is quite simple: Americans are not saving, the cost of health care is rising, pension plans are disappearing, Social Security is nearly dead, and people are living longer than ever before. A longer life only prolongs the misery of that life if you have not saved and prepared for your future.

I talk to college students all the time about saving for retirement, and I am sure that about 1/3 of them listen. I didn’t listen when I was in college, but I wish I had. If I had done so, I would know about the Financial Magic that takes place when you save and invest in the stock market over a long period of time. I’m not talking Harry Potter, but the Pot of Gold at the end can make your life as rich as a Hollywood block buster.

Let’s do the math: Assume that Angela starts saving for retirement at 45, Danny starts at 35, and Cindy starts at 25. All of them save till they are 65, each investing in the stock market, earning an average return of 10% per year. Angela earns the most on her job ($55,000) since she is the oldest, with Danny coming in second ($45,000) and Cindy coming in third ($35,000). But when Cindy is 35 and 45, she will earn the same amount as her older counterparts. Based on this assumption, all of them earn the same amount over their lifetimes. I won’t adjust for inflation, since this has been enough to absorb already (isn’t math annoying sometimes?).

Assume Angela, Danny and Cindy each save a measly 10% of their pay before taxes and have that money put into a retirement account that invests in a diversified portfolio in the stock market. By diversified, I mean that they don’t buy just one stock, they have their money spread out over a lot of stocks and all their eggs are not in one basket.

Let’s figure out the size of their nest eggs, shall we? Drum roll please: Angela, who got off to a late start, will have $348,041.50 in her retirement account, minus taxes paid when she withdraws the funds. Not good, not bad. It’s better than nothing.

Danny is better off. By saving 10% of his income when he earns $45,000 and then continuing to save when his pay rises to the level of Angela’s, Danny ends up with $864,826, more than twice as much as Angela. Good for Danny, he can afford to maintain his golf and cheeseburger habit.

Cindy is the smart one. Fresh out of college, she doesn’t spend all of her money at the club. Instead, she spends some of it planning for her financial future. Starting at 25 instead of waiting, how much doe Cindy have at retirement? A cool $1,907,340.54. You go girl. Instead of saving just 10% of her income, she may save 20%, which would effectively double this amount to $3.8 million dollars. Now, that’s Financial Magic at its best. Harry Potter has nothing on Cindy.

What’s my point? The point is obviously not for you to obsess over the tiny variations in numbers. My point is that by planning ahead, you can get ahead. If you are planning behind, then you’ll always stay there. Start saving early if you can, and if you can’t start early, then get started TODAY!

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of “Financial Lovemaking 101: Merging assets with your partner in ways that feel good”. He provides regular commentary in national media, including CNN, FOX, BET and CBS.

Why I really hate Gift Certificates

My mother, who is one of the wisest people I know, was talking to me the other day about gift certificates. We were having this discussion while debating what to get our needy-ass, yet loveable relatives for Christmas (only a couple of them are needy, most of them are loveable). Christmas is that overly commercialized holiday that seems to come every single year. I don't mind Christmas, but it seems that the word "Christ" has been removed in exchange for the last part "must". "I MUST have this", "we MUST do that", it's crazy!

At any rate, we were wondering if gift certificates were the best gift to give, since it avoids the awkward, yet inevitable reality that you are going to always end up giving something to someone that they just bought, don't want or don't need as much as something else. So, you have then graced your loved one with the burden of yet another trip to the pawn shop or the 50 mile long Walmart return line right after the holidays are over. They are also burdened with the guilt of having to pretend that they like your gift, even though they really don't. You know, those fake, awkward smiles that make your face hurt and stomach turn.

We both concluded in our scientific analysis (My Mama and Me Labs, Inc.) that gift certificates were better than regular gifts, since you can get what you want.

But I had to put the brakes on our ground breaking analysis....I then said, "Well, based on that logic, it would seem that money is the best gift certificate, since you can not only get whatever you want, but you can use it at any store."

That led us to wonder: "What exactly do companies give us in return for exchanging a hard earned $50 dollars that can be used ANYWHERE for their pathetic, multicolored little piece of paper that can is also worth $50, but can only be used in ONE PLACE?"

Nothing.

The companies typically give us nothing in exchange for the purchase of a gift certificate. It would be one thing if they allowed us to purchase a $30 gift certificate for $25. That would make our decision to limit the stretch of our money at least partially worth while. But when you give them $30 dollars that can be spent anywhere, they give you back the same $30 dollars that can only be spent at one place.

That's not all they do to screw us for the holidays.

Companies also get over on the fact that many of us never use the gift certicates anyway! According to Needham, Mass.-based consulting-firm TowerGroup, over $5 billion dollars in unused gift certificates allow corporations to fill the stockings of their stock holders. And believe me, they aren't giving that money to charity.

So, my mother and I both came to the grim conclusion that gift certificates, from a financial standpoint, are not very good gifts. Cash is the best gift certificate there is. It's the thought that counts, and my mother and I put quite a bit of thought into our decision. We hope our relatives appreciate it.

So this year, everyone we love is going to get a card with cash in it. That's the same gift that makes every third grader smile (Remember when that old relative you never talked to sent you that ugly card every year that always had cash in it? Don't pretend like that WAS NOT the first card you opened!). Perhaps the third graders are onto something, since this gift can make adults smile even more.

Financial Lovemaking: Merging Assets with Your Partner in Ways that Feel Good

You can think of the Financial Lovemaking system as the “Kama Sutra of Money Management”. It teaches you the ins and outs of the financial lovemaking process, and how your financial choices can serve to stimulate and strengthen your relationship, rather than destroy it. Millions of couples are making financial love, and a lot of them are doing it the wrong way. Here are some tips on how you can avoid being one of the millions of people who find themselves with battered relationships due to bad financial choices.

Here is just a small list of ways that someone could ruin your life financially:

A partner with horrible credit could keep you from ever getting loan.

A partner with terrible spending habits can ruin a family’s financial security.

A partner with a substance abuse or other costly addiction could deplete a family’s assets.

A partner with unhealthy connections to deadbeat relatives, who always need money, may drain
your assets.

A partner that with an income that is too low due to a lack of education or poor professional choices could ruin you financially.

A partner may steal money from you or borrow it without your permission and use it for something frivolous (i.e. a bad business investment, gambling, etc.)

A partner who makes bad financial choices may get you into trouble with the IRS.

A partner who decides to separate from you may end up dragging you and your money through a long and costly legal battle.

Things you should know before you start the system:

The key to good financial lovemaking is oral – you must communicate with your partner

You must be prepared to be honest.......Honest about areas that need improvement.

The key to good financial lovemaking is rhythm.

It’s not a matter of someone being good or bad. It’s about whether or not they are compatible with you.

Do they complement you if you are seeking to be complemented? Do they contrast with you in ways that you know you need to be contrasted? Do they serve to strengthen your good habits or enable your bad ones?

Steps in the financial lovemaking system

1) Getting financially naked with your partner
2) Request documentation of credit reports, debt levels and income levels

The documentation must be recent, not delayed.

3) Taking and giving your partner an FIV test (The Financial Irresponsibility Virus)
Does your partner have a financial venereal disease?

4) Getting your body ready for financial lovemaking....How are you going to look when you are financially naked?

If you do not have a partner, how do you get ready for when you do?

How do you feel about your financial body in the first place?

5) Financial foreplay

This process can be fulfilling, rather than frightening and draining. Spend time getting your partner excited about making financial love. You may have to educate them about the process.

6) Financial fantasizing: Do you have any financial dreams and goals you want to share? Write them down together and tackle them together. Try to find mutually exciting fantasies.

7) Consider doing a 3-some: Get good advice – bring in an objective outsider who can facilitate your lovemaking process. Subscribe to magazines and websites that are going to enhance your financial lovemaking with one another.

8) Finding a rhythm: It’s not a matter of them being spenders or savers. The question is whether or not you can live with what you see. Does the person’s habits complement your own and allow you to reach goals more easily? Do you have a plan on how you are going to merge your money and manage it together? Is everyone involved, or are there silent partners? Remember – Silent partners don’t get to make financial love. Silent partners just get screwed.

9) Reaching your climax together: Are you on the mountain top alone? – Have both of you agreed that your financial goals work best for each of you, or is one of you taking the lead and running with it? Did both of you participate, or did one person do all the work? This can leave you feeling burned and bitter.

Questions you must ask yourself to determine your needs during Financial Lovemaking

1) Does size really matter? – The size of your mate’s bank account.
Does it matter to you?
How do you feel about your own size?
Do you feel good or bad about your partner’s size?

2) Am I a selfish financial lover?
Bad lovemaking usually starts with selfishness or deceit.
How do you respond when things go bad?
Do you see your partner as “your ticket”, or do you see them as someone who supplements what you are going to bring to the table?

3) What is my own relationship with money?
This is going to impact how you deal with the money of others. It also plays a role in determining whether or not you need financial condoms (protective mechanisms to allow you to keep your money distinct from anyone else’s).

Dr. Boyce Watkins is a Finance Professor at Syracuse University and author of Financial Lovemaking 101: Merging Assets with Your Partner in Ways that Feel Good.